Daily Archives: May 28, 2008

The Extremely Likely Explosion to an Extremely Unlikely Situation

It’s been awhile since I’ve bothered to post anything substantive, and I recently entered a cycle in which I’ve posted nothing at all.  We are in the dregs of the campaign (yet again), and the arguments are entrenched.  Clinton continues to argue her tortured “popular vote” count, Florida and Michigan absurdly remain an issue, and Clinton supporters (or Republicans posing as Clinton supporters) continue to say that if Clinton doesn’t win, they’ll vote McCain.

It’s really hard to tell which argument is the most absurd and all have been argued to death.  Everything has been said ad nauseam, so repeating it here would be useless.  However, there’s one thing that absolutely has to be said in response to the last argument (and has been said in the past, a number of times by me, but not much recently). 

The apparent reason for the argument is that it would persuade superdelegates to endorse Clinton out of fear that these individuals won’t vote Obama in November.  Obviously, this shows a calculation such that its veracity is highly doubtful.  Assuming it was true however, just imagine what would happen if the superdelegates did overturn the election.  What in the world do these people think would happen if the superdelegates did vote the way they wanted them to?  Of course there are people on both sides who wouldn’t vote for the other side even if won fairly, but it would be far more damaging to the Democratic Party to steal the election away from Obama than it would be by allowing the results to stand: a fair win by Obama.

I can’t help but hit on this point again and again (as I have in this weblog).  It’s so obvious, and yet we continue to have Clinton supporters threaten a McCain vote.  It’s insane to say such a thing in the first place, and insane to assume that there would be no negative reaction if the superdelegates did overturn the result.

That said, the Magic Number stands at 45, and assuming the RBC doesn’t completely screw things up this weekend, it shouldn’t veer off from this too much.  So, yet again, it’s basically over.